2019: The Looming War Ahead

To the less discerning Nigerians, Year 2019 might just be like any other year having successfully driven pass 2015 that was predicted to be a year of Armageddon for the country. But taking a crystal look at the intertwine of political developments since 2015, the direction towards 2019 looks pregnant. AMOS DUNIA, who has been monitoring the situation, puts together the ding dongs already taking place in the political arena.

Going by political weather forecast ahead of the 2019 general elections, the gathering cloud is omnibus with thick and dark sky that presently or in the near future may be difficult to predict even by the best meteorologists. But to the politician, adept in the art of scheming and survival of the fittest game, the end will surely justify the means. No thanks to the ‘politricks’ and events that are gradually culminating into massive conspiracy, manipulations, maneuverings, mistrust, treachery and backstabbing in the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) as well as the highly-polarized opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Pointedly put, the polity is presently characterized and taken over by confusion with political actors surreptitiously moving round the country to meet, consult, strategise and mend fences with perceived and real opponents with a view to forge a common front and alliance. From Lagos to Kano, Sokoto to Rivers, Calabar to Maiduguri, the songs and story are the same – “New Alliances”. Specifically, meetings and consultations are on-going daily, just as some have already taken place outside the country to escape the prying eyes of security agencies that may be nosing around and working to thwart such deft political moves considered injurious to the primary interest of their principals and specifically the sitting regime.

OBJ Announces The Moves

In his usual statesmanlike style and concern for the nation’s democracy, former President Olusegun Obasanjo let the cat out of the bag with his allusion that a new mega party is on its way to replace the governing APC and dismembered opposition PDP. For the Ota warlord, the two dominant parties have lost their steam and what it takes to retain people’s confidence, talk more of winning the presidential elections come 2019. The former President had alluded to the fact that factional National Chairman of the PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, who paid him a visit earlier in the year, was merely playing the role of an undertaker, desperately struggling to nurse the soul of a party that has already departed. Obasanjo, who maintained he was done with partisan politics, however stressed that for the nation’s democracy to be strong and functional, there was the need for a strong political party in government as well as in opposition. According to him; “I don’t know if the APC can claim at the national level, to be a strong party in government, just as the PDP is not a strong opposition either. That is part of the misfortune of this country today.”

Tactical Errors

Information pieced together by Forefront indicate that some politically wrong moves that were not tactically and carefully planned by the presidency have not gone down well with some sections of the APC members and may have accounted for the early shift in positions, alignment and realignment of political forces by some party’s heavy weights even as others are now sitting on the fence weighing the force of current political waves or possible directional signs and swings of the political pendulum. For instance, some National Assembly members, particularly Senators are so unhappy with President Muhammadu Buhari over his perceived handling of the Code of Conduct saga involving the President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki over allegations of false assets declaration dating back years before he became President of the Senate in addition to the Senate Standing Rules forgery suit instituted against the Senate President and his deputy, Ike Ekweremadu by the Attorney General of the federation and Minister of Justice but recently withdrawn from court. The aggrieved Senators believe actions of the executive arm were deliberately planned as a fight back by the presidency over the outcome of the election that catapulted Senator Saraki to the exalted number three public officer in the land. They also consider it as a deliberate attempt at not only ridiculing the former Governor of Kwara State but bringing the institution of the Federal legislature into disrepute as well as put it under the controlling arm of the Presidency. Some of the notable aggrieved Senators on the platform of the APC include former governors of Kano – Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Sokoto – Aliyu Magatarkada Wamakko, Kebbi – Adamu Aleiro, Zamfara – Ahmed Yerima and Kwara – Bukola Saraki, who formed the nucleus of the defunct New PDP that ditched the then ruling PDP, thus contributed hugely to the success of President Buhari and the APC in the 2015 polls.

Party Crises

While the imbroglio is yet to abate or resolved by contending parties, a new twist that may spell doom for the APC has suddenly surfaced with one of its founding leaders and former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, believed to be feeling “used and schemed out” of effective participation in governance at the federal level. The kernel that may have hit the eye painfully is Tinubu’s allegations that the Party leadership manipulated the APC governorship primaries in Ondo State. Specifically, Tinubu said the National Chairman of the party, Chief John Oyegun must resign his position owing to the ignominious role he played in the Ondo primaries.

The New Powerful Team

The situation is further aggravated by the vantage position President Muhammadu Buhari may have accorded the trio of Governor Nasir El-Rufai of Kaduna State, former governor of Lagos State and Minister of Works, Power and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Raji Fashola, and former governor of Ekiti State, who is the Minister of Solid Minerals, Dr. Kayode Fayemi. They are alleged to be working assiduously to take over the control of the party machinery with a view to effectively edge out Tinubu from the scheme of things. Both Fashola and Fayemi can aptly be described as political sons of Tinubu before President Buhari took them over when he assumed office in 2015 by appointing them as ministers. It was gathered that Tinubu did not want both Fashola and Fayemi as ministers but President Buhari refused to grant him the privilege of having a say on who to pick as his cabinet members. This is just as sources within the presidency hinted that part of the calculations is that should President Buhari decides not to take a second shot at the presidency in 2019, he is likely to support an El-Rufai/Fayemi’s joint ticket.

Tinubu’s Calculations

Insiders said Asiwaju Tinubu, known to always postulate ahead and calculate every move of his supporters and opponents alike, has already read the hand writing on the wall and does not want to be caught standing at akimbo and possibly overran by those he considers his hitherto political brought ups. He has therefore commenced subtle moves aimed at placing him on a vantage pedestal to dictate affairs as well as call the shorts or at the least, consulted before vital decisions are taken. Wide but measured Consultations As a start, Tinubu has commenced measured consultations with various key groups across his party, region and socio-cultural divides, including members of the opposition PDP as well as those having same feelings of ‘having been used and dumped by PMB’. In this wise, close aides hinted, he is reaching out to like-minds in the South-east, South-south and Middle Belt (North-central) geo-political zones with responses so far described as interesting, encouraging and welcoming. And to ensure he is not caught napping in his South-west home front, one of his key allies and Governor of Osun State, recently visited and held a meeting with Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State, who is also expected to reach out to Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State on the need for the South-west to forge a common front ahead of 2019. Alluding to this re-alignment of forces is former Minister of Aviation under former President Obasanjo and Director of Media and Publicity to former President Goodluck Jonathan Campaign Organisation in the 2015 presidential elections, Mr Femi Fani-Kayode. According to him, political re-alignment is already taking place in the South-west, adding that the time has come for the South-west, South-south, South-east and their Middle Belt brothers and sisters preparatory to joining forces towards wrestling power from the Fulani oligarchy in 2019.

South-west Interest

As a means of working out a smooth take off of the new understanding between the two PDP governors in the South-west, Fani-Kayode said; “We may all have our differences in terms of political party affiliation, but one thing is clear: as Governor Rauf Aregbesola of Osun State rightly told Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State during their recent meeting in Ado Ekiti a few days ago, there will be a re-alignment of political forces both in and outside of the South-west very soon. There is no question about the fact that, he is right about that. And when that time comes, we all need to wise up, smell the coffee and accept the fact that we must stand together as one in order to defend the interest of our people. “When the lion and the tiger stand shoulder to shoulder in defence of the castle, it makes it very difficult for the jackals and the bandits to mount the walls and take the gates. The earlier men like Rauf Aregebesola, Ayo Fayose, Olusegun Mimiko and a number of others put their differences aside and join forces to protect and further the interests of the Yoruba people in a wider Nigeria, the better.” Fani-Kayode then hit the nail on the head: “With the attempted demystification of Tinubu by the Presidency and the APC national leadership, the process of re-alignment has already started, thus the need for members of the new force from the South-west, in particular to sit up and learn fast, saying; “when your neighbour’s house is being set on fire by the marauding barbarians and invaders, no sensible person should gloat as it would only be a matter of time before they set their sights on yours as well.” Taking his submission further, he said; “Yet let me be clear. I do not talk about a re-alignment of forces with cowards and quislings and neither am I proposing joining forces or closing ranks with those who have sold their souls to the devil, who have traded their heritage for a mess of pottage and who have decided to be perpetual slaves to the ultra-conservative feudalist hegemony forces of the core north.”

Those Not Needed

And in what appears a veiled reference to Fashola and Fayemi, the former Aviation Minister said; “I do not refer to those who have decided to sell their erstwhile mentors, elders, betters and political leaders in the South-west down the river in return for being made a super-Minister. I do not refer to those who are possessed by the spirit of Absalom, who have decided to kill their fathers, who are committed to betraying the South-west and who have offered themselves out as the “new alternative” of Yoruba leaders that will become ever-ready puppets of an all-powerful core north. I need mention no names but they know who they are.” The former minister and self-appointed defender of the Yoruba cause noted that given what is slowly unfolding in the two big political parties, PDP and APC, as well as the country in general, it is obvious that we have little choice. “Whether you are in the PDP or the APC, the paramount interest must be how to further the Yoruba interest, how to restore the dignity of our people and how to ensure that our country is redefined or restructured before it is too late. Anything less than that will lead to our collective doom,” Fani-Kayode enthused.

The Counter Move

But in what obviously looks like a counter to the position of Fani-Kayode and covet moves by Tinubu, former Senate President in the botched 3rd Republic, Senator Ameh Ebute said politicking in 2019 when President Muhammadu Buhari would be nearing completion of his first term in office shall be spiced by many considerations. According to Ebute, who is alleged to be working for some interests in the North-west desirous of thwarting the moves of Tinubu, such considerations expected to throw new alliances between groups and regions and heighten anxiety, would witness political actors deploying demonic intrigues to undo rivals and even perceived opponents.

Difficult Cooperation

Ebute acknowledged that the South-west Yoruba race may have given early signals going by the body language of APC National leader, Ahmed Tinubu, who he noted is determined to fuel the flames of discord in the governing party by ensuring he blends it with manipulations to possibly unseat President Buhari to remain in national politics reckoning. The former Senate President therefore declared that no Northern minority would be ready to gamble with the South-west Yorubas no matter the attractiveness of the political lure, stressing that past alliances with the South-west Yorubas were never rewarding to the people of the Middle Belt in particular. In his words; “the political experience and maturity garnered by the Middle Belters over the years would not allow them to sheepishly follow the South-west politically.”

The South East Agenda

Similarly, political gladiators, professionals-in-politics and socio-cultural groups within the South-east geo-political zone are believed to be keeping their eyes on the ball beyond 2019 general elections. Insiders hinted the seeming consensus to lay back and keep things cool in the next elections is borne out of clear permutations and calculations that baring any misgivings, treachery or outright rebuff by other geo-political zones in the country, it would be the South-east’s turn to produce the elected president in 2023 given existing gentleman’s agreement within major political parties in the polity. With this in mind, dependable sources confirmed that consultations and overtures being made to leaders of the South-east by political cronies and associates across the other zones are being treated with utmost care, camaraderie and politeness. This is just as Forefront reliably learnt the idea is to avoid any slip that could scuttle the zone’s chances of producing the president in 2023. In the circumstance, our sources said the only clear mandate many leaders of thought and stakeholders in the zone have given to themselves is to build bridges of understanding and unity for the Igbo nation across party lines in readiness for the assignment ahead. A top shot of the governing APC from the zone, who does not want his name in print, told Forefront, “I can confirm to you that deep rooted consultations have already begun. There have been offers and issues raised concerning possible horse trading from some personalities and groups. But let me tell you categorically that nothing is attractive to the South-east now and there is a subtle order that no one from the zone should even think of taking the Vice Presidential candidate offer from any of the major political parties in the overall interest of our presidential ambition come 2023.”

Urgent Steps Needed

Also speaking to Forefront on the formation of a new mega political party to take over from both APC and PDP, former governor of old Kaduna State, Alhaji Balarabe Musa said there is no way anybody can form a political party to win election without massive resources that is not available from legitimate pursuit, except from public stealing stressing that the future looks bleak even as the situation in his view may even get worse except careful, urgent and drastic actions are taken. “Right now, let us be thinking of a credible alternative government in 2019. That should be the thinking of Nigerians because we cannot continue like this.” On the party that should form the government in 2019, Musa said; “Let the Nigerian people decide in a free, conducive atmosphere, credible and transparent election. We will form a credible government, but Nigerians have to stand up and fight for their rights.”

Necessity Of A New Party

Speaking in the same vein, National Chairman of Kowa Party, Alhaji Saidu Bobboi said he does not see the PDP having the capacity and capability to play the role of an effective opposition party to re-capture power owing to the 16 years of mismanagement of resources, corruption, impunity and insurgency that soared under its watch for which it was unable to decisively acquit itself in governance In his words, “This has a profound negative effect on it and is working against the party. For now, Nigerians are not ready to accept this gross infraction and failure in spite of the party’s second place with governors in the country and federal legislators in the National Assembly. At the moment, the PDP can play the marginal role of opposition leader, but I’m telling you that by 2019 or thereafter, there will be little or nothing like PDP again in the country just like the APC that is already facing a breakup that might be worse than that experienced by the PDP in 2015.”

Aisha Buhari Kicks

With President Buhari yet to come to terms with the early opposition within, his wife, Mrs Aisha added another dimension to the evolving political drama. In an interview granted the BBC Hausa service, she said her husband of over 27years has been hijacked by those that did not contribute to his presidency, lamenting that the President does not seem to know some of his appointees. While details of her outburst remain hazy for now, political pundits are of the opinion that the development points to the fact that all is not well within the presidency.

Old War Horses

For now, the role of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the upcoming arrangement is still hazy just as it is not clearly defined owing to no love lost between him and Tinubu due to their disagreement following the outcome of the 2007 presidential election during which Atiku contested on the platform of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) led by Tinubu. In addition, was Tinubu’s refusal to back his candidature in the run up to the 2015 general elections as Atiku, who was believed to be coasting to victory at the APC’s presidential primaries was suddenly given a heavy blow that sent him reeling to a distant fourth position behind General Muhammadu Buhari, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Governor Roachas Okorocha of Imo State. Atiku, who found the role of Tinubu in the process humiliating, immediately recoiled into a position and waited quietly for Tinubu’s next move and it came quickly for him too with the election of Presiding officers of the National Assembly. The former Vice President did not waste time to endorse the candidature of Senator Bukola Saraki for President of the Senate and Hon Yakubu Dogara for Speakership of the House of Representatives. Attempts by Tinubu to use the machinery of the APC to get the duo of Saraki and Dogara give way to his favoured candidates was met with stiff resistance as Atiku went ahead of him to mobilise Northern and to a large extent PDP legislators to ensure victory for the two National Assembly presiding officers. But information put together by Forefront indicate that Atiku, who met with former President Goodluck Jonathan to forge a new common front ahead of 2019, is also believed to be working with Tinubu with the hope of reaping maximally from a possible choice of a Northern presidential candidate for 2019. Similarly, some political allies of Jonathan are equally believed to be working with the Tinubu’s group already. How the alliances and realignment would eventually crystalize is only a matter of few weeks and months ahead.

APC Worries

In the meantime, the APC National leadership is threading softly on likely steps to take in dealing with Tinubu. Insiders said some of the available options at its disposal are considered dangerous, costly and potentially damaging. One of such considerations is to discipline Tinubu by suspending him, but the party is equally conscious of the fact that doing so may be counter-productive given the large followership he commands and enjoys in the party. He is believe to control a chunk of the Party’s National Working Committee (NWC) members, legislators and states’ executives that may likely lead to a major division in the leadership of the party as well as unimaginable crisis in the party. Checks by Forefront point to a direction of absolute care being taken over the development as not to present majority of legislators on the platform of the governing APC at both National and State Assemblies, so unhappy with the presidency, with any constitutional loophole to formally defect from the Party to either a new party or an existing one whose name would be changed after the alliances and realignment as the case may be.

Governors Too

Some governors on the watch list of the presidency too are equally getting set to defect once the realignment is completed. Some of the governors, like Rochas Okorocha and Shettima Kashim of Imo and Borno State respectively are believed to have met with the Tinubu’s group. While Okoracha has repeatedly denied having a presidential ambition for 2019 in spite of posters that adorned the streets of Abuja, Kaduna and Kano, depicting his photograph as a running mate to Kashim in 2019, his name keeps ringing a bell as having fallen out of favour with the Presidency. On the other hand, Kashim, who has lost so much popularity in his state, is alleged to have deliberately embarked on a political gamble ahead of 2019 as a bait for negotiation with President Buhari not to send officials of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), to take a look at alleged financial malpractices and irregularities allegedly committed by his administration. His gambit however fell flat on its face value as the presidency is believed to have asked questions over the whooping amount that accrued to the Local Government Councils running into billions of Naira at a time that about 18 of the Councils were under the control of Boko Haram. Governor Shettima’s political relevance is said to have suffered some major reversals in the eyes of the right thinking members of the public particularly in Borno, thus not in a position to pose any threat to President Buhari if he decides to take another shot in 2019.