The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 4.1 percent in 2026.
The World Bank had projected in October 2025, that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 percent in 2026.
This was as the Bank said that in Sub Sahara Africa, about 60 percent of the countries in the region (29 of 47) recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts.
The Bank’s projection for 2027 was also downgraded to 4.2 percent, while the growth forecast for 2028 is put at 4.3 percent.
The World Bank in its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled; “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa”, which was released on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, stated that the growth forecast is driven by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment.
It noted that the services sector particularly ICT, finance, and real estate will remain the primary engine of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly due to structural constraints.
The Bank also said inflation projection will decline from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and later ease to 10.7 percent by 2028, reflecting the lagged impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.
According to the World Bank; “Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
“Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty. However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” it projected.
The World Bank also said the economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, showing an insignificant difference from 2025.
It further said that the 2026 growth forecast for the region has been downgraded by 0.3 percentage points compared to its October 2025 projection.
According to the global lender; “Across countries in the region, some large countries in the region have been revised downward in 2026; notably, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia.
The World Bank stated that despite the downgrade, economic activity across the region has been supported by improved macroeconomic stabilisation, better inflation control, stronger domestic currencies, and easing fuel and food prices.
It further said; “These developments have helped bolster private consumption and investment, while enhanced policy frameworks are strengthening credibility and resilience”.
The World Bank also stated that higher commodity prices that included precious metals and beverages, have supported export earnings and government revenues, just as trade performance has remained resilient despite persistent global tensions.
The World Bank report noted that the gains are being tested by rising external risks, especially the escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could trigger higher energy prices, disrupt trade, and renew inflationary pressures.
