The Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Dr Umar Ardo, has said that going by the political pulse of the nation occasioned by severe hardship, hunger and frustrations, President Bola Tinubu is most likely not going to garner up to 10 per cent of votes in Northern Nigeria in the 2027 presidential election.
Dr Ardo, who is one of the key promoters of the unregistered ‘All Democratic Alliance (ADA)’, pointedly said that election if the election is free and fair, President Tinubu will be bidding the presidency of Nigeria goodbye.
Ardo, who stated these when he featured on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ilese-Ijebu, Ogun State, stated that the Tinubu’s electoral support in the North is depended largely on how voters assess his administration and perceive him, stressing that his present rating is abysmally low.
He particularly said that insecurity, economic hardship, poverty and the rising cost of living are germane issues that would certainly shape the political choices of Northern voters ahead of the election.
In the words of Ardo; “The Tinubu-led administration’s handling of insecurity remains a major concern in the region, with insurgency and other security challenges continuing to affect communities, farmers and businesses”.
Ardo further said that the security situation could be significantly reduced if the Federal Government demonstrates the political will to tackle the crisis by adopting the right strategy.
He noted that insecurity has consequences beyond the loss of lives and property, as farmers, traders and other citizens cannot operate effectively when their safety remains under threat.
Ardo particularly criticised the economic reforms of the Tinubu administration, specifically the abrupt removal of fuel subsidy and questioned whether ordinary Nigerians have seen tangible benefits from the policy.
Ardo noted that the Tinubu economic reforms had weakened the purchasing power of Nigerians as the real purchasing power has been drastically depreciated, stressing that the economic situation has made it increasingly difficult for Nigerians to afford basic necessities.
According to Ardo; the impact of the reforms has been particularly severe in Northern Nigeria because of the region’s large population of poor people, stressing that the economic reform has pushed the people from the state of poverty to destitution.
He also raised concerns about political representation under the Tinubu administration, saying that the composition of government can influence how citizens perceive the administration and its commitment to different regions.
Ardo emphasized that the question of representation should be considered alongside the broader issues of governance and the actual impact of government policies on citizens, emphasizing that the 2027 election would therefore provide an opportunity for Northern voters to assess the administration based on their experiences since Tinubu assumed office.
He further said; “The region’s political choices should not be viewed as permanently tied to the voting pattern recorded during the 2023 presidential election as prevailing economic and security conditions would play an important role in determining the direction of Northern votes.
“If a free, fair and credible election is conducted in Nigeria, Tinubu can’t get 10 percent of votes in the Northern part,” he said.
