“But, Sokoto voters are not Kano voters. Here, performance must bow to religious dignity. A governor who builds roads, but is seen as disrespecting Sultanate Council will lose Arkilla and Gidan Dare”.
BY ABDULBAKI IBRAHIM
Sokoto 2027 will parade 19 candidates on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) list, but inside Sultan Bello Mosque corridors and Shehu Shagari Secretariat, elders whisper it’s effectively a four-horse race in the Caliphate: APC’s Ahmed Aliyu Sokoto, ADC’s Manir Dan’Iya, NDC’s Aliyu Shamsudeen Haido, and PDP’s Abdullah Sokoto Abubakar — the man flying Wike/Bature flag in a house divided. Ballot date is February 6, 2027 and the drums have started.
Present Situation: The Mentor, The Mentee And The 342-Vote Scar
Governor Ahmed Aliyu is not just seeking re-election; he is seeking validation.
In 2019, he lost Sokoto Government House by only 342 votes to Aminu Tambuwal — a margin thinner than morning pap at Kofar Rini. That scar still drives him. His mentor and political godfather, Senator Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, Sarkin Yamman Sokoto and Senator for Sokoto North, remains the unmistakable APC leader in Sokoto.
At 73, Wamakko still drives the defection tractor: last July, he harvested PDP’s 2023 candidate, Malam Sa’idu Umar Ubandoma, into APC.
At the welcome rally, Wamakko cracked: “Sokoto is APC and APC is Sokoto”.
Aliyu, buoyed, launched his 9-Point Smart Agenda — security, agriculture, education, infrastructure, healthcare, water, religious affairs, youth/women empowerment, and LG autonomy.
His projects dot Wamakko, Binji, and Silame — boreholes that now gurgle, classrooms that now have roofs.
On October 10, in a rare moment of statesmanship, Aliyu threw a challenge that stunned opposition war rooms: “Showcase what you did when you held power instead of campaign of calumny. We will ensure decorum in our campaign language and refrain from insulting anyone”.
It was subtle but sharp — a reference to Dan’Iya’s time as Deputy Governor and SSG.
The Challenger Who Counts Crowds Differently
Enter Manir Dan’Iya, former Deputy Governor, former FCT Minister’s man, now ADC flagbearer since May 2026. He didn’t waste time. He appointed former PDP chairman Bello Goronyo as his Director General (DG) and in one swoop mobilized 40,000 youths at Mabera.
When journalists asked about APC’s crowd, Dan’Iya smiled: “Rally size doesn’t win election in Sokoto. Caliphate people look at who can present solutions when water is scarce and bandits are on the road to Isa”.
He knows Sokoto. He speaks the language of Almajiri schools, of Wamakko’s old constituencies. And ADC, flush with Atiku’s national machine, is telling the youths: “This is your Caliphate, not theirs”.
PDP: A House With Two Keys
Here is where Sokoto risks repeating Zamfara/Kebbi confusion.
PDP is divided into two camps: Faction One — Wike/Bature faction — listed Abdullah Sokoto Abubakar as candidate.
Faction Two — Damagum/Tambuwal loyalists — Publicity Secretary Hassan Sanyinnawal told my source last week, voice tired: “We are studying situation”.
Studying situation while INEC deadline is approaching? That study may cost them ballot access.
Who Has Upper Hand? And Why Sleepless Nights Remain
On paper, Governor Ahmed Aliyu and APC have upper hand. Wamakko’s machine is intact, projects are visible, opposition is split into 19. Ubandoma’s defection in July 2026 closed eastern flank.
But, Sokoto voters are not Kano voters. Here, performance must bow to religious dignity. A governor who builds roads, but is seen as disrespecting Sultanate Council will lose Arkilla and Gidan Dare.
Dan’Iya knows this.
A retired Permanent Secretary in Sokoto told me: “Manir knows how to kneel before Sultan and how to stand before youth. That is Caliphate politics”.
If ADC can unite PDP remnants and mobilize youth anger over rural banditry on Sokoto-Illela road, Aliyu’s 342-vote revenge story can flip.
How To Contain/Subdue — Before February 6, Becomes Fire
For APC: Don’t hide behind Wamakko factor. Your 9-Point Smart Agenda must show results in Isa, Sabon Birni, Goronyo — where water scarcity and banditry, not flyovers, determine votes.
Maintain decorum as governor promised
