National Stability: Nigeria Must Recalibrate Its Policy Priorities — Prof Uba

A renowned development economist and Chairman of the Board of the ACUF Initiative for Policy and Governance, Prof Chiwuike Uba, has called for a decisive, inclusive, and well-sequenced approach to Nigeria’s economic transformation.

Prof. Uba has therefore urged Nigerian authorities to urgently address what he described as a “misalignment of national priorities,” citing rising debt, entrenched poverty, escalating insecurity, record unemployment, and deepening macroeconomic instability as symptoms of underlying policy gaps and implementation missteps.

He said; “This is a defining moment for Nigeria. The choices we make now will determine whether we entrench resilience or spiral further into instability.”

Drawing on the findings of the April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, Prof Uba noted that Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance continues to lag regional peers, saying; “We are faced with a paradox. Despite our immense resource endowments, Nigeria remains trapped in cycles of low growth with GDP growth failing to match population growth and per capita incomes steadily declining, fiscal distress, and insecurity. We cannot afford to continue business as usual.”

He also said that despite abundance of resources, Nigeria remains heavily dependent on crude oil, which accounts for over 75% of foreign exchange earnings, stressing that sectors like agriculture and manufacturing remain underutilized due to regulatory bottlenecks, poor infrastructure, policy inconsistency, inadequate financing, and weak policy coordination.

Uba said to reposition Nigeria for sustainable growth, there is the need for multi-sectoral reform agenda anchored on the following pillars:

“Economic Diversification: Prioritize climate-resilient agriculture through targeted subsidies, irrigation, and farmer support services. Create regional industrial clusters and export-processing zones. Incentivize SMEs and tech innovation in underserved regions through concessional financing and regulatory reform.

“Human Capital Investment: Allocate a minimum of 10% of the national budget to education, with urgent attention to out-of-school children, teacher shortages, and education infrastructure. Raise health sector allocations to 8% of the national budget, expanding primary healthcare coverage and addressing the brain drain of medical professionals.

Dedicate 1% of GDP annually to vocational and technical training, with centers established across all LGAs.

“Debt Management & Revenue Expansion: Pursue strategic debt restructuring, rather than further borrowing, to create fiscal space. Introduce a robust, digital tax regime to expand the tax net and improve compliance. Reallocate spending from wasteful subsidies to productive sectors.

“The Security Paradox: More Spending, More Instability:

Over the past decade (2014–2025), Nigeria has spent over ₦40 trillion on defense and security. In the 2025 budget, security and defense received ₦6.11 trillion—exceeding the combined ₦5.7 trillion allocated to education, health, and skills development. “This imbalance reflects a persistent misdiagnosis of the root causes of insecurity,” Uba said.

He also said that there is no how that nation can bomb its way out of poverty, adding that despite the massive investment, insecurity remains widespread—from insurgencies in the Northeast to rural banditry, kidnappings, and communal clashes in the Middle Belt and Southeast.

Uba specifically called for a shift from militarized responses to preventive investments in social welfare, justice, and inclusive governance.

Commenting on Governance, Jobs, and Accountability, Prof Uba said with unemployment at 33.3% and youth unemployment topping 42%, there should be national emergency on job creation, thus proposed a National Job Creation Corps to employ youth in agriculture, construction, renewable energy, and digital innovation.

According to Uba; “To tackle corruption and restore trust in government, he emphasized: Strengthening anti-corruption agencies through legal and operational reforms. Mainstreaming e-governance tools for procurement, budgeting, and service delivery. Institutionalizing transparency via real-time, publicly accessible fiscal dashboards”.

He also called for electoral reforms to guarantee greater youth and women inclusion, through quotas and financing support for underrepresented candidates.

On the Tinubu Administration — With Critical Lessons, Prof. Uba while acknowledging the Tinubu administration’s politically bold reforms, notably; the removal of fuel subsidies, saving over ₦1 trillion annually, the unification of exchange rates, which has curbed arbitrage and sent positive signals to investors, a renewed emphasis on capital expenditure, including transportation, power, and digital infrastructure, said that the policy design is only as good as its implementation.

Uba said; “We must not continue to invest heavily in fighting symptoms while ignoring root causes. The only path to a stable, prosperous Nigeria is through inclusive growth, strategic investments in people, and accountable leadership.”