Inflation Drops By 0.24% In January 2018 – NBS

BY AMOS DUNIA, ABUJA – The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released its January 2018 Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicating that the measured inflation rate that started the year 2018 stood at 15.13 per cent (year-on-year) in the month under review.

The figure showed a 0.24 per cent points lower than the December 2017 rate of 15.37 per cent, thereby making it the 12th consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year-on-year inflation since January 2017.

According to the NBS, the highest increases were recorded in prices of fuel and lubricants for personal transport and transport equipment; vehicle spare parts; accommodation services; maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment; appliances articles and products for personal care; hotels and restaurants.

Others include hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments; clothing materials and other articles of clothing; garments; nondurable household goods and solid fuels

The NBS’ inflation report also stated that increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yield the Headline Index. For instance, on a month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.80 per cent in January 2018, indicating 0.21 per cent points higher from the rate of 0.59 percent recorded in December 2017.

The report further noted that the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the 12th month period ending January 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12th month period stood at 16.22 per cent, showing 0.28 per cent point lower from 16.50 per cent witnessed in December 2017.

Similarly, the CPI report also stated that the urban inflation rate rose by 15.56 per cent (year-on-year) in January 2018 from 16.78 per cent recorded in December 2017, while the rural inflation rate also eased by 14.76 per cent in January 2018 from 15.02 per cent in December 2017.

It further states; “On month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 0.83 percent in January 2018, up by 0.17 from 0.66 percent recorded in December 2017, while the rural index also rose by 0.77 percent in January 2018, up by 0.23 when compared with 0.54 percent in December 2017.

“The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.55 percent in January 2018. This is less than 16.92 percent reported in December 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2018 is 15.89 percent compared to 16.10 percent recorded in December 2017.”

On the high year-on-year food prices, the report said food price pressure continued into December 2017 at a generally slower pace, adding that the Food Index stood at 18.92 per cent (year-on-year) in January 2017, down from the 19.42 per cent recorded in December.

It further states; “On a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 0.87 per cent in January 2018, down by 0.29 per cent from 0.58 per cent recorded in December. The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending January 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 19.62 per cent, 0.07 per cent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2017 (19.55) per cent.”

It explained that the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of imported food in general as well as bread and cereals, milk, cheese and eggs, Vegetables, Fish, Coffee tea and cocoa, meat, Potatoes yam and other tubers and Oil and fats.

Similarly, the report said; “The ‘All Items Less Farm Produce’ or Core sub-index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural, stood during the month of January 2018 at 12.10 percent points, similar to rate recorded in December 2017.

“On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub-index increased by 0.68 percent in January 2018, higher from 0.51 percent recorded in December. The average 12-month annual rate of change of the index was 13.01 percent for the twelve-month period ending January 2018; this is 0.45 percent points lower than 13.46 percent recorded in December 2017.”

It said that in analyzing price movements, the CPI is weighted by consumption expenditure patterns which differ across States, adding that the weight assigned to a particular food or non-food item may differ from State to State making inter State comparisons of consumption basket inadvisable and potentially misleading

It specifically said that “All Items Inflation In January 2018, on a year on year basis was highest in Kebbi state with an 18.55%, followed by Nasarawa with a record of 18.49% and Bauchi with 18.01%, while Delta recorded 12.77%, Kogi States 13.28% and Anambra 13.34% which recorded the slowest rise in headline Year on Year inflation.

“On a month on month basis however, January 2018 all items inflation was highest in Kogi with a record of 2.72%, Bayelsa (2.39%) and Sokoto (1.68%), while Kebbi, Bauchi and Cross River recorded price deflation on a month on month all item basis in January 2018 Food Inflation In January 2018, food inflation on a year on year basis was highest in Kwara (24.46%), Nasarawa (22.77%) and Bayelsa (22.60%), while Bauchi (13.34%), Anambra (14.63%) and Benue (14.78% recorded the slowest rise in food inflation.

“On a month on month basis however, January 2018 food inflation was highest in Bayela (3.47%), Kogi (3.38%) and Nasarawa (2.26%), while Cross River, Kebbi. Yobe, Anambra and Delta all recorded food price deflation or negative inflation (general decrease in the general price level of goods and services or a negative inflation rate) in January 2018,” the NBS CPI report stated.