Wagner Mutiny: Russian General Goes Missing

• US intelligence hints on close ties to Prigozhin
• Claims Gen Surovikin knew about uprising

Days after the Wagner Chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin-led uprising in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, a Russian Army General, Sergei Surovikin, who previously led the invasion force in Ukraine, has not been seen in public since Saturday.

General Surovikin’s missing from public glare coincides with the United States (US) intelligence reports claiming that he had prior knowledge of what President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly described as mutiny by Prigozhin.

The current whereabouts of General Surovikin, the head of the Russian aerospace forces and formerly Moscow’s supreme Commander in Ukraine, is unknown.

Prigozhin had welcomed his appointment to that post in 2022, calling him a “legendary figure” and “born to serve his motherland”.

The well-publicised links between Surovikin and Prigozhin have fuelled rumours that Surovikin may be purged or put under investigation for supporting the mutiny.

However, when Prigozhin launched his uprising, General Surovikin made an unambiguous statement against it and in support of the Russian government late on Friday.

“We fought together with you, took risks, we won together,” Surovikin said, adding; “We are of the same blood, we are warriors. I urge you to stop. The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to escalate in our country.”

But citing western intelligence sources, the New York Times, reported on Wednesday that General Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin’s armed mutiny, in which his Wagner mercenaries captured the city of Rostov and moved on Moscow before cutting an amnesty deal.

US officials briefed on the intelligence said they did not know if Surovikin was actively involved in the plot, which culminated in an aborted march on Moscow of several Wagner convoys with heavy weapons.

The Wall Street Journal also reported on Wednesday. that the other failed goal of the mutiny might have been to abduct the Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the head of Russia’s armed forces, Valery Gerasimov

The reports of Surovikin’s knowledge of the plot, if confirmed, could help explain a lacklustre military response to the mutiny.

“We know there are divisions about how the war is being fought and I suspect Surovikin shares the contempt for the amateurishness of Shoigu and Gerasimov,” said Sir Lawrence Freedman, an emeritus Professor of war studies at King’s College London.

“It all depends on what you think Prigozhin was trying to achieve. Surovikin might have been keen on change in higher command but he would not want to have been involved in a coup – which I don’t think was Prigozhin’s original intention either.”

Freedman said it was likely that Surovikin was in Rostov at the time of Prigozhin’s mutiny, given that he and Gen Vladimir Alexeyev, who was seen with Prigozhin on Friday, released similar videos calling for unity and support for Putin from the same room that day.

Most analysts in Russia and abroad are sceptical that Surovikin, a loyalist who was in command of Russian forces while they were under heavy pressure from a Ukrainian counterattack, would participate in a full-blown mutiny.

Rob Lee, the American military analyst, said Wagner fought troops technically loyal to Surovikin over the weekend. “Just want to emphasise that Surovikin is the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and Wagner shot down 7+ aircraft, including several aircraft that weren’t armed,” he wrote adding; “Strange thing to do if the Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces was actively supporting you.”

Describing as “regrettable” the airmen’s deaths, Prigozhin, who is currently in Belarus on exile, said his troops were largely peaceful and that “not a single soldier on the ground” had died during their 24-hour mutiny.

Reacting to the development, the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, did deny the New York Times report on Wednesday, but said; “There will be a lot of speculation, conjecture and so on of various kinds around these events. I believe this is one such example.”

On the whole, consequences are expected after the aborted mutiny, with unconfirmed reports indicating that some fighter pilots refused to bomb the Wagner convoy as it approached Moscow and that border troops allowed the convoy to pass unmolested.